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Fire Shelby Thames -> Fire Shelby Thames -> Fire Shelby Thames -> LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
Post Info TOPIC: LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
fire shelby

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LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
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Louisiana State University Grad Student Predicts Losses of Millions Due to Thames Controversy


Go to the front page of the fire shelby website and click the link there--have been having a problem hot linking in this message board. It will take you to a statistical report modeled on MUW's losses after the faculty no-confidence vote on Clyda Rent.  Predicts $26 Million bottom-limit loss over four years for USM if Thames remains.


Come back after reading the report and discuss.



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Disgusted

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There goes USM's hope of being the state's largest university...

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elliott

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Wow!  This is astonishing, and scary though....

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wary undergrad

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RE: LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for
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Any way that someone could forward that to the AAUP, and the ADP??
Shelby High, here we come

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Goliath

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While the statistical model is valid, I have some observatations as a scientist.


First, the presidential controversy will in fact have a negative impact on the University's financial situation, just from loss of students and tution/fees/subsidies, etc.

We can "quibble" about the extension of the four year damange period as well as whether a major research university like USM (MUW is a teaching college) would have the same percentage decrease in students.

The alarming fact is that it is most likely going to negatively impact USM's budget.

Second, the analyis does not even include the local area economic impacts of students who would have spent money in the Forrest-Lamar County economy who will now spend those dollars elsewhere.

This local impact can be much very much more severe since a large number of students would not have been in Hattiesburg spending money if they did not go to USM. Consider the average student spends thousands of dollars per year in addition to tuition and fees. That is then subject to a "multiplier" effect.

Thus, the local housing market, rental businesses, bars, resturants, movie theaters, grocery stores and retail stores at the various malls would have less business.

It has happened at MUW. Just go ask them.

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tomcat

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RE: LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
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Anyone going to the media with this one?

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fire shelby

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quote:
Originally posted by: tomcat
"Anyone going to the media with this one?"

 


Feel free to do so.  I don't know the name of the grad student--he's anonymous.  But this would be at least good fodder for a letter to the editor.


Force the media to investigate this through lets to eds.



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Goliath

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Economist and Elliot
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You both make good points.

I had opined earlier in the string, saying we might quibble a lot on things.

It was difficult for me to see what the guy did, given the problem with symbols that fire shelby admitted to.

And, yes, what evidence do we have that the experience at MUW would be replicated here at USM, as I earlier drew the distinction between "research" university vs. "teaching college?"

However, it does seem to me that there will be some sort of negative economic and business fallout if this thing just goes on and on. I think I agree that a negative impact will occur. It's just a matter of how much damage and for how long.

Whether it will be so bad as it was and still is up at MUW, time will only tell. I think that when economists and stats people and other social scientists say "all else the same", that many other events could change the results. For example, hiring coach Eustachy could offset some of the potential student loss.

I just don't know, but I have a quesy feeling about my alma mater if this is not resolved quickly.

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fire shelby

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RE: RE: LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
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quote:
Originally posted by: elliott
Moreover, any comparison of USM to MUW is really an example of a weak stretch that would make us look like fools. "

Actually, I think the comparison is valid.  Both are publicly funded universities in this state.  The economy of the towns in which both universities are located are centered on the university (and both have military bases, camps nearby--a tangential contribution to the situation).  Both universities had administrators whose faculty issued to them a vote of no confidence.  In MUW's case, it turned out to have a negative affect on enrollment.  I suspect we will see the same thing here--especially in Liberal Arts, which has already been noticed.  Both are governed by the same college board, albeit with different members now, but still the same governing body.


My question would be to ask in what ways the situations aren't similar?



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fire shelby

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quote:
Originally posted by: elliott
"One more thing, the elliott that just posted is not even the real elliott.  I am.  Dear Fire Shelby moderator, I just wanted you to know that.  This "new" elliott might even be "economist" for all we know.    "

Gee, I am not surprised.  Looks like the only excitement this person can find is masquerading as other members of this board.  That's ok...I can check it and I will remove the other "Elliot" message if it is not under your IP.


Fire Shelby



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the real elliott

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I see what the "new" elliott did now.  He looked at my positive post from yesterday and wrote "A day ago I thought this was good news, but now ....."  Clever.

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fire shelby

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quote:
Originally posted by: fire shelby
" Gee, I am not surprised.  Looks like the only excitement this person can find is masquerading as other members of this board.  That's ok...I can check it and I will remove the other "Elliot" message if it is not under your IP. Fire Shelby"

Zapped it.  You were right.  Let me know if this happens again. I am sorry that this person is hell-bent on being disruptive here. What a sad, boring life...


Fire Shelby



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Goliath

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fire shelby
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You are correct in that I cannot explain why would be any different. That is my point, to agree that our community is going to suffer because of all of this.

Perhaps if we are research and they are teaching, then we would have more serious grad students who need to finish up their degrees. On the other hand, I could just as well argue that our situation is much more broadcast all over the globe than was MUW, so the negative economic impact could be far worse than the $26.5 million.

Like I said, the longer this goes on and we have our current leadership, the worse it's going to be for the very Hattiesburg businessmen who seem to support Thames.

Heck, it very well COULD be in the tens of millions. If anywhere near the number of students drop out as the LSU guy estimates, we are in for bad times.



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fire shelby

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quote:
Originally posted by: Goliath
Heck, it very well COULD be in the tens of millions. If anywhere near the number of students drop out as the LSU guy estimates, we are in for bad times. "

 


I try to put myself in the place of parents looking at liberal arts colleges for their children.  If I knew the professors in lib arts at USM, I would send my kid with no reservations.  But if I had no knowledge about the wonderful faculty in liberal arts and all I knew about USM was what is being reported in the media, I would look elsewhere for a place to send my child.


I am using liberal arts as an example, but one might just as well substitute nursing or any other FORMER college.  The point is that, as much as higher education costs, people will be hesitant to spend their dollars at a uni with the problems USM has right now.  And right now is when next year's freshmen are enrolling.  There is no telling how much will be lost, thanks to Thames.


The statistician who computed the losses said that his figures were lower-bound (conservative).  Considering that USM's problems are getting much more press than MUW's did, I believe the losses will be much more than he projected.


Just my .02. 


 



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elliott

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RE: LSU Grad Student predicts $26M 4-yr. loss for USM
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I agree with Fire Shelby, that USM's situation is much worse, and is getting much wider attention because of it, than the MUW situation.  Here is another reason to think the LSU report is an underestimate.  It seems to use roughly the current proportions of in-state and out-of-state students at USM to report the tuition losses.  I think you could argue that the losses will disproportionately affect the out-of-state population.  Going a long way from home to do anything --- work, go to school, etc. --- is hard to do.  Why entertain those psychic costs for a school that is apparently being flushed down the toilet by its president.  Disproportionate out-of-state losses equals bigger tuition losses.


 


 



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G. Gee

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This web site is starting to pose some serious questions.  Quite frankly, it is getting out of hand.

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Goliath

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Good point Elliot (the "real" one?)
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Yes, the out of state thing could make the models comparable or even, as you say, USM much worse.

The nature of the negative publicity is in no way even utterable in the same breath as the mostly local reveberations of the Clyda Rent thing.

No one in Europe or Boston was too concerned about Clyda Rent.

Also, bad as Clyda was, she is a Sunday School teacher compared to our plight.

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